Gallup: Republicans Now Outnumber Democrats Nationwide
For the first time in years, self-identified Republicans slightly outnumber Democrats nationwide, according to the Gallup U.S. Daily Tracking Poll. Political junkies and news consumers would never know it if they simply watched network and cable news all day, but the results of Gallup’s tracking are the latest set of data indicating the modern Democratic Party is in serious political peril.
In Jan. 2009 (9-11), right before former President Barack Obama was sworn into office after his landslide electoral college victory over Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., a majority of Americans (51%) identified as Democrats when including leaners. As early as Feb. 1, Democrats still had a slight edge in party affiliation nationwide, 47% to 42%
Now, only 43% with leaners self-identify with the Democratic Party. Without leaners, it just 25% juxtaposed to 36% in Jan. 2008.
For Republicans, 28% excluding leaners self-identify with the GOP, up only 1 point from 27% in 2008. But including leaners puts them 4 points higher than 8 years ago at 44%. Still, the shift is largely from the loss of independents, who backed President Donald J. Trump by large margins in most battleground states in November against Hillary Clinton.
And this near-decade long shift has played out more significantly when we look at the state level.
Not only do Republican states continue to outnumber Democratic states, but every single shift in party affiliation over the year has benefited the GOP. According to Gallup U.S. Daily, 21 states are now classified as solid or leaning Republican, 14 are solid or leaning Democratic and 15 states are competitive.