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Wow: Look what just happened to Trump’s odds of becoming the nominee

Wow: Look what just happened to Trump’s odds of becoming the nominee

The Analytical Economist | Allen West

Much has happened in the past week to affect the outcome of the Republican presidential primary. Trump had a particularly poor performance at Thursday’s debate – though as we reported, the questions posed in the debate were biased against Trump and favored Rubio.

After the debate, Trump made the decision to skip speaking at CPAC, though as many pointed out, this could be because a walkout by Cruz supporters was planned against him (and most at CPAC are Cruz fans).

In the past week, much has changed, and one of the ways we can measure this is by prediction markets. FOX News host John Stossel’s website electionbettingodds.com aggregates the election betting odds on this primary and calculates the probability of which candidate will win the primary based off those bets.

It’s surprisingly accurate, often outperforming the polls in predicting elections. Insider trading is technically legal in election betting, and there will always be insiders placing bets to make the odds accurately reflect the true probabilities of each candidate’s victory.

After a poor debate performance and skipping on CPAC, the odds have worsened for Trump, and sweetened the most for Cruz.

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