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That poll showing Clinton leading in Utah? It doesn’t exist.

That poll showing Clinton leading in Utah? It doesn’t exist.

Phillip Bump | Washington Post

The only fitting way for the 2016 campaign to end, after all of the tumult and bizarreness that we've seen over the past 20 months, is for there to be some dramatic result on Election Day. An electoral college tie, maybe. Or a total blowout. Something interesting, anyway. It's got to happen, right?

This, I suspect, is part of the reason that people have seized on a report from a Salt Lake City CBS affiliate about a new poll in the deep-red state of Utah. The surprising/exciting finding? Hillary Clinton has a 1-point lead in the state.

Imagine that! Utah going blue for the first time since 1964. Now that's the sort of thing that we'd expect to see in this bizarre, wacky year.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. First of all, a 1-point lead is, of course, in the margin of error of the poll. If the election were today and that poll were right on the money, Donald Trump could easily emerge the victor.

Assuming, that is, that the massive number of people who didn't pick Trump or Clinton decide to split their votes between the two. The KUTV report indicates that Clinton gets 36 percent of support to 35 percent from Trump — leaving 29 percent of the electorate going somewhere else. This is actually quite similar to a SurveyUSA poll from June showing Clinton and Trump tied at 35 with Gary Johnson — whose campaign headquarters is in the state — pulling 13 percent. That leaves 17 percent of voters undecided.

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